novembro, 25 2024

By WWF-Brazil

The outcome of COP29 risks delaying climate action at a time when accelerating it is most critical and necessary. After two weeks of tense and polarised negotiations, countries built a climate finance agreement that does not come close to meeting the financing needs of developing countries. The amount announced is insufficient for mitigation actions and also fails to take into account urgent and necessary efforts for adaptation and loss and damage, which negatively and disproportionately affects least developed countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), which have contributed least to greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, this COP failed to send a strong enough signal about the need to rapidly reduce emissions and phase out fossil fuels.
 
More than just an insufficient amount to tackle the climate emergency – and doubts about the consistency of these resources – COP 29 leaves as a legacy the urgent need to strengthen multilateralism. Trust is the raw material of international politics and a crucial factor in achieving positive results.

Although Azeri negotiators have never stood out in previous conferences, the concentration of decisions in the presidency and the omission of sections resulting from previous achievements – such as the mention of fossil fuels – have opened the way for divergences between developed and developing countries to escalate to levels not seen at least since COP 15 in Copenhagen.

In this challenging scenario with little consensus, Brazil will play a decisive role in 2025, pushing for new, additional climate financing after the unsatisfactory outcome of COP 29. The creation of a Baku-Belém Route to fill the gap between the amount established at COP 29 and that demanded by the least developed nations leaves the door open for continued negotiations on financing, but it could overburden the process of the next conference, which already faces the challenge of increasing the climate ambition of the parties. In 2025, the Brazilian presidency of COP 30 will need broad support from other countries to achieve success in both goals.

This is a task mainly for negotiators from developed countries, who need to rethink their positions on climate, as it makes no sense to defend climate action in speeches and, in practice, make progress impossible by reducing financing. COP 30, therefore, is the chance for developed countries to show their real commitment to tackling the climate crisis. In 2025, multilateralism must show its strength of resistance, focusing on the implementation milestones of the Paris Agreement, presenting effective results to change the trajectory of destruction of the planet.

In this context, the UNFCCC must ensure the framework for robust international agreements, in addition to working to ensure that the voices of the most vulnerable nations are heard. Likewise, global civil society plays a key role in advocating for climate justice and pushing for more ambitious political commitments. Multilateralism is, in itself, a process in constant evolution and the most effective way to address the interconnected crises we face.

As the third consecutive conference in a major oil producer, COP 29 was also negatively distinguished by the massive presence of lobbyists from the fossil fuel industries - which even outnumbered the negotiators. Responsible for two-thirds of global emissions of the gases that are warming the planet and altering the climate, fossil fuel industries can no longer be admitted to climate conferences due to the evident conflict of interests. This is a particularly important point for the next COP, to be held in Brazil, where oil exploration is already a subject of dispute.

Despite a weak and authoritarian COP presidency, it is important to recognise that in Baku we made progress in consolidating Article 6, with the operationalisation of an international emissions trading system to enable cooperation between countries to implement their NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions), closing the rulebook of the Paris Agreement and finally enabling its implementation.

"As president of the next Climate Conference, it is essential that Brazil takes a leading role in the viability of 1.5°C, demanding that other countries increase their ambition in all areas of negotiation, and setting an example, especially with regard to targets that encompass the economy as a whole in terms of the goals of eliminating fossil fuels and eliminating deforestation and degradation of native vegetation," says Mauricio Voivodic, executive director of WWF-Brazil.

COP 30 should also be decisive on relevant issues, such as the Global Adaptation Goal, with indicators that provide guidelines for countries to act to adapt to the climate crisis and have means to monitor implementation.
 
Maintaining multilateralism remains essential to face the complex challenges of the present. As the host country of both BRICS+ and COP 30 in 2025, Brazil has a unique opportunity to lead the promotion of international cooperation and a more inclusive and equitable global governance structure. To avoid an embarrassing outcome like in Baku, the negotiations in 2025 will depend on a collective effort to build consensus that defines the paths to face the challenges of the 21st century and the urgency of the climate crisis. Brazil has already shown that it knows how to do this – given the results of the G20, when it reached an agreement between representatives of the most diverse political spectrums, and sent a signal of hope that Belém could be a milestone, as the one we achieved more than 30 years ago at ECO 92.