dezembro, 06 2022

By WWF-Brazil

Deforestation, one of the main causes of local climatic alterations, combined with global climate change, has significant impacts on Brazilian agribusiness. Between 1985 and 2012, deforestation caused an average reduction of 12% in the productivity of soybean cultivation in the Amazon and 6% in the Cerrado, with a decrease of more than 20% in some regions of the two biomes.

These are some of the highlights of the latest WWF-Brazil technical note, which compiles relevant studies on the topic. They reaffirm the close relationship between deforestation, climate change and agricultural productivity. The survey points out that the high rates of deforestation in the Amazon and Cerrado result in a drop in productivity and profitability for Brazilian agribusiness.

Another data from the technical note shows that the drop in gross revenue referring to the decrease in the regulation of extreme temperatures after deforestation was, on average, US$ 158.50 annually for each hectare of soy produced in the Amazon, with the dollar value in 2005 as a reference. In the case of the Cerrado, monthly increases between 2.2 and 4.0 oC in maximum temperatures and 2.4 and 2.8 oC in minimum temperatures were recorded between 1961 and 2019.

“Impact for agricultural productivity means less food on the table, higher inflation and impact on exports. Climate change directly affects the supply and cost of food. This movement is already happening, but it tends to get worse if we don't stop deforestation now and develop actions to mitigate and restore natural ecosystems", says Edegar de Oliveira, Director of Conservation and Restoration at WWF-Brazil.

Estimates of future soybean and pasture productivity losses were also raised in the Legal Amazon, considering different territorial management scenarios. These losses could reach 26% for soybeans and 32% for pastures by the middle of this century. If producers do not adapt, 20% more deforested area in the Amazon and Cerrado by 2050 could lead to additional productivity losses of between 6% and 10% in Matopiba region and 20% in Mato Grosso state - which are the main grain producing regions in the country -, in addition to the losses caused by global climate change.

Another study shows that, in addition to the gross income losses caused by global climate change, Mato Grosso could lose an additional US$ 1.8 billion related to deforestation by 2050.

Regarding corn grown after the soybean harvest (the so-called second crop corn), studies indicate that deforestation would lead to a drop of up to 8% in productivity. If it is necessary to postpone planting dates for crops to adapt to a scenario in which the rainy season starts later and lasts for less time, this drop could reach 30%. The study suggests that, with deforestation persisting until the middle of this century, adapting planting dates and adopting shorter-cycle cultivars will not be enough to keep current productivity levels in dual-crop systems (soybean and corn). These changes would be linked to the shortening of the rainy season and the resulting impacts on rainfed cultivation (without irrigation).

One of the assessments indicates gross income losses in soybean cultivation in the Amazon in different governance scenarios until 2050, taking into account the empirical relationships established with observed data on rainfall and deforested area. The authors show that a weak management scenario could lead to the loss of 56% of the forest area by 2050, which would cause a loss of gross income from soybean cultivation of about BRL 1 billion annually.
 

Losses throughout the production chain

In addition to agriculture, losses also affect other sectors. A report based on estimates from Brazilian companies' own risk matrices points to losses of up to BRL 24 billion for not taking action against deforestation in their value chains. The value results from losses with reputational damage, consumer flight, difficulties in accessing international markets and changes in ecosystem dynamics.

WWF-Brazil also observed data from the Deforestation and Rain Platform, which provides information on the loss of gross revenue in the production of soy and beef due to deforestation and consequent climate change.

The data showed that the greater the level of deforestation (ranging from 10% to 40%), the greater the loss of gross revenue for soybeans, regardless of the planting date, and for beef production. The platform is based on a study that evaluates the spatial variation of the value of the ecosystem service of climate regulation for agricultural production in the Amazon from scenarios of progressive clearing of the forest and simulations with agrometeorological models.

It is important to note that since 1961, the effects of the man-made climate crisis have reduced global agricultural productivity by 21%. This percentage is higher (between 26% and 34%) in warmer regions such as Latin America, Africa and the Caribbean.
 

Adaptation to reduce losses

Existing studies address productivity loss estimates for different land use and climate change scenarios, but with little information based on field observations. Even with this limitation, the available data are already worrying. Therefore, in addition to pointing to zero deforestation as the main way of mitigating losses, the survey highlights some sustainable practices that are in operation and should be strengthened: genetic improvement of plant cultivars and animal breeds, direct planting in straw, biological nitrogen fixation, digital sensors for soil and plant assessment, climate risk agricultural zoning, agroecological zoning and other initiatives that are essential for the country to remain at the top of agricultural production, points out the conclusion of a WRI Brasil document.

All the data in the technical note are pointing out that there is urgency in the application of sustainable solutions for the maintenance of forests and mitigation of the climate crisis. "Many tools already exist, but there is a lack of implementation by the public authorities and engagement by other actors, such as companies and the productive sector, for example. Science is in our favour, with data and perspectives, it is up to us to prioritise actions that ensure a balanced future for the next generations”, warns Mariana Napolitano, Head of Science at WWF-Brazil.
Some technologies are foreseen in public policies in the country, such as the Low Carbon Agriculture Plan (ABC Plan) and the National Policy for the Recovery of Native Vegetation (Planaveg), which are, according to the study, fundamental instruments to enhance adaptation in agriculture, above all because they guarantee the conservation of biodiversity and protect pollinators; they keep water supply and quality; they mitigate climatic extremes, such as droughts and heat waves, the main causes of production losses; they reduce the occurrence of natural disasters, especially risks of flooding and soil erosion; they keep the balance of biogeochemical cycles; they sequester carbon in the soil; they provide diversity of production and income for the rural producer; and they contribute to greater resilience of production systems to climate change.
 

About WWF-Brazil

WWF-Brazil is a Brazilian NGO that for 26 years has been working collectively with partners from civil society, universities, governments and companies across the country to combat socio-environmental degradation and defend the lives of people and nature. We are connected in an interdependent network that seeks urgent solutions to the climate emergency. Meet the NGO.