maio, 15 2026

By Maria Fernanda Maia, from WWF-Brazil 

Over the past decade, wildfires in Brazil have shifted from relatively predictable and seasonal events to increasingly intense, prolonged, and large-scale fire events. Rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, and changes in rainfall patterns are reshaping fire dynamics in biomes such as the Amazon, Cerrado, and Pantanal.

Recent data from the Global Forest Review highlight that, although the world recorded a slowdown in the loss of tropical primary forests[1] in 2025, global levels of forest destruction remain alarming. In just one year, the planet lost 4.3 million hectares of tropical primary forests — equivalent to more than 11 football fields per minute, according to the platform.

The report also reveals an important shift in the nature of the global forest crisis: in 2025, fires accounted for 42% of global tree cover loss. This shows that forest loss is also linked to the advance of climate-driven degradation caused by rising temperatures, reduced humidity, and intensified extreme events.
 

Critical situation for 2026

For Mariana Napolitano, Conservation Director at WWF-Brazil, current projections point to an even more critical fire season this year: beyond the increase already recorded in areas of extreme heat in the first months, experts point out that the combination of a new El Niño event — with forecasts of severe impacts on temperature and rainfall patterns – together with biomass accumulation and intentional burning in some regions; and a political context of state and presidential elections may significantly increase the risk of large fires and hinder coordinated prevention and response efforts.

“With increasingly extreme climate conditions, Brazil is entering a crucial period in which large-scale fires may generate even more severe impacts on ecosystems, biodiversity, water resources, and vulnerable populations. In election years, there is also an additional challenge of institutional coordination, which may compromise the capacity for prevention, monitoring, and rapid response to fires,” the Director notes.

Indicators recorded so far suggest that the country is heading toward another critical year regarding forest fires. According to data from the National Institute for Space Research (INPE in Portuguese), between January 1 and May 3, 2026, Brazil recorded a 14.7% increase in fire hotspots compared to the same period in 2025. In the Amazon, the increase reached 56%, reinforcing the growing pressure on the biome. The most aggressive rise occurred in the Pantanal, where fire hotspots doubled compared to the same period in 2025, with a 106% increase.
 

Degradation worsens the forest crisis

More than isolated events, recurring fires have been accelerating silent and cumulative processes of forest degradation, compromising the resilience capacity of Brazilian ecosystems even in areas where native vegetation appears to remain intact.

A scientific study published in the journal PNAS reinforces this scenario by showing that forest degradation has already become one of the main drivers of carbon loss and ecological degradation in the Brazilian Amazon — and that policies focused exclusively on reducing deforestation are not sufficient to protect the forest in the long term.

The results reinforce an increasingly established scientific understanding that a forest may remain “standing” and still progressively lose its ecological functionality, its carbon storage capacity, and its resilience. Over time, successive degradation processes may compromise the forest’s ability to regenerate and increase the risk of ecological tipping points.

“In other words, the problem is not just the fire itself, but the accumulated deterioration it causes. In addition to the immediate damage, recurring (and human-induced) fires have been driving large-scale ecological degradation processes, progressively reducing ecosystem integrity and directly affecting communities that live in and depend on these environments,” explains the Director.

Climate emergencies require rapid response and territorial coordination

This new context requires a broader approach to conservation and climate resilience. Reducing deforestation remains essential, but scientific evidence shows that protecting forests also means strengthening the ecological integrity of landscapes, preventing degradation processes, and expanding the capacity of territories to respond to extreme events.

Studies also reinforce the strategic importance of rapid response during forest fire emergencies. Early-stage intervention remains one of the most effective ways to prevent small outbreaks from turning into large ecological disasters, especially in remote and conservation-priority areas.

In this context, strengthening local brigades, supporting frontline teams, and strengthening local response capacity are becoming increasingly strategic components for climate adaptation, biodiversity protection, and the resilience of Brazilian ecosystems.

“Ecological integrity and ecosystem resilience must become central elements in addressing a climate reality increasingly marked by extreme droughts, recurring fires and cumulative degradation processes,” Napolitano concludes.