janeiro, 26 2026

By WWF-Brazil

WWF-Brazil presented a set of 31 technical recommendations organized into four strategic pillars: financing, governance and institutionality, goals and schedule, and sectoral guidelines, to subsidize the construction of the Roadmap for the end of fossil fuels in Brazil. The proposals respond directly to the order of the Presidency of the Republic, published in December 2025, and outline how the country can conduct a fair and planned energy transition, based on coordinated actions on supply, demand, regulation and investments, based on scientific evidence, socioeconomic analysis and energy planning studies accumulated over years by the organization and partner networks.

The recommendations propose, in an integrated manner, the reorientation of subsidies and investments destined to fossil fuels to low carbon solutions, the strengthening of the governance of the energy transition with decision-making bodies and interministerial coordination, and the establishment of binding goals with deadlines, indicators and budgetary integration to the official planning instruments. In the sectoral field, the proposals defend the interruption of the expansion of the fossil frontier, the planning of the decommissioning of oil and gas assets, the acceleration of renewable electrification, the stimulation of advanced biofuels and the regulatory modernization of the energy sector, with a focus on predictability, energy security and reduction of fiscal, social and climate risks in the long term.

For WWF-Brazil, the Roadmap represents a decisive opportunity to align Brazilian energy policy with the economy of the 21st century. “The evidence shows that insisting on expanding the fossil frontier is not only a climate risk, but an economically inefficient choice. Brazil has all the conditions to lead a fair, planned and competitive energy transition, provided that decisions are based on data, transparency and long-term vision," says Ricardo Fujii, conservation specialist at WWF-Brazil.

Financing guidelines

The guidelines for financing decarbonization presuppose the convergence between stable regulatory frameworks and financial mechanisms capable of catalyzing the reallocation of capital, reducing risks and ensuring the effectiveness of the instruments adopted. In this context, it is essential to reorient the investment portfolios of Petrobras and BNDES, prioritizing non-water renewable sources and advanced biofuels, while making it mandatory to internalize the social cost of carbon in the feasibility analyzes of new energy infrastructure projects, incorporating the climate externalities and public health impacts today disregarded. In addition, the replacement of the logic of "explore to finance" by the direct and immediate allocation of capital in renewable electrification and biofuels, such as ethanol, biodiesel and biomethane, allows to ensure positive socioeconomic returns, strengthen energy security and preserve the fiscal balance in the long term.

Guidelines for Governance, Institutionality and Transparency

The guidelines of governance, institutionality and transparency constitute the operational basis of the energy transition and require evolving from a merely advisory model to an executive and deliberative structure, capable of ensuring the continuity of State policies. This presupposes cross-cutting coordination between strategic areas of the government, integrated institutional arrangements for regulation and financing, decision-making decentralization and strengthening of the National Energy Transition Forum as a central decision-making body, with binding decisions or mandatory assessment by the National Energy Policy Council. The creation of specialized technical bodies, the designation of a coordinating authority, the clear definition of institutional responsibilities and the adoption of mechanisms for active transparency and social monitoring are essential to ensure stability, effectiveness and public control over the planning implementation.

Guidelines for goals, indicators, budget and integration

The guidelines for goals, indicators, budget and operational integration propose to establish binding milestones that convert strategic guidelines into executive obligations, with clear and compulsory sectoral goals for decarbonization, energy efficiency and technological transformation, followed by verifiable indicators and defined deadlines. This arrangement must be supported by a planning cycle with mandatory reviews and clearly assigned institutional responsibilities, in addition to the budgetary and financial linkage in the Multiannual Plan and the Annual Budget Law, ensuring resources and sources of financing. The feasibility of the energy transition also depends on mechanisms of transversal integration that guarantee the convergence between the different strategic plans, through coordinated interministerial actions, shared goals and formal instruments of articulation.

Sectoral guidelines

The sectoral guidelines point to the interruption of the expansion of the fossil frontier and the responsible management of the decline of the oil and gas sector, with a progressive reduction of subsidies, structured decommissioning planning and economic diversification measures for dependent regions. In parallel, they advocate the deep decarbonization of transport, through alternative fuels and electrification based on 100% renewable sources, the review of incentives for the consumption of fossil fuels and the strengthening of collective and active mobility. The advancement of the transition also requires the regulatory and technological modernization of the energy sector, with priority to renewable energies, clear goals for reducing carbon intensity, stimulating biomethane, offshore wind and green hydrogen, in addition to the continuous monitoring of energy consumption and the participation of clean sources, ensuring coherence, predictability and alignment with a low-carbon system.

Technical and scientific rationale for recommendations

The contributions presented by WWF-Brazil are the result of a consistent accumulation of evidence and production of technical knowledge, built from its own studies, comparative analysis, economic modeling, socio-environmental assessments and dialogue with the scientific community, civil society organizations and research centers in Brazil and abroad. This set of data and analysis provides a solid basis for informed, transparent and public interest-driven public decisions, reinforcing that a fair and planned energy transition must be carried out with technical rigor, fiscal responsibility and long-term vision. See below:

(PT) Brazil at a crossroads Study: rethinking Petrobras' oil and gas expansion - shows that 85% of Petrobras' assets may become obsolete assets in a 1.5 °C scenario and discusses forms of public and private financing of Petrobras' energy transition

(PT) Guidance on phasing out fossil fuels through NDCs 3.0 - protocol for public policy makers indicating the inclusion of O&G phaseout strategies in Nationally Determined Contributions

(PT) Report of the Cost-Benefit Analysis of Small Hydroelectric Plants (SHPs) in the Upper Paraguay basin - demonstrates the economic unfeasibility of the implementation of SHPs in the Upper Paraguay basin.

(EN) Brazil's energy scenario - the infographic presents the central idea that the energy transition consists of progressively replacing fossil energy sources with clean and renewable sources, emphasizing that the transition is not only technical, but involves economic, social and political aspects.

Technical Note: Losses and missed opportunities: socioeconomic analysis of oil exploration in Foz do Amazonas - provides robust economic evidence to counter the premise that it is necessary or feasible to explore new oil frontiers to finance the national energy transition. Being finalized.

(PT) Future of Energy: vision of the Climate Observatory for a fair transition in Brazil - The Climate Observatory proposes a fair energy transition for Brazil, in line with the Brazil 2045 Strategy. The goal is for the country to become carbon negative by 2045, correcting injustices and avoiding socio-environmental impacts.

(PT) ases for the 2nd Brazilian NDC 2030-35 - The Climate Observatory argues that the Brazilian NDCs for 2030-2035 are more ambitious, based on climate needs. The proposal seeks to ensure Brazil's fair contribution in the face of climate urgency.

(EN) Emissions Gap report. UNEP - discusses the gap between climate commitments and adopted policies, including for energy.

(EN) Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach - the 2023 IEA report updates the path to net zero emissions by 2050, considering recent advances and challenges in the global energy sector. The document serves as a reference for policies aimed at compliance with the Paris Agreement.

The construction of the Roadmap for a Fair Energy Transition is decisive for aligning Brazil with the economy of the 21st century by demonstrating that the energy transition is not only an environmental imperative, but the most economically rational option for the country. The evidence indicates that the expansion of the fossil frontier, especially in sensitive areas, imposes high social and fiscal costs, while the renewable route offers greater well-being, positive economic returns and long-term security. In this context, WWF-Brazil reaffirms that the effectiveness of the transition depends on firm political decisions to redirect investments, adopt clear governance, financing and goal guidelines, and is available to collaborate with the government in the implementation of this path.