dezembro, 19 2024

By WWF-Brazil

Between 1961 and 1990, the number of days with heatwaves in Brazil did not exceed seven. This figure rose to 20 days between 1991 and 2000, to 40 days from 2001 to 2010, and to around 52 days from 2011 to 2020. Warming in several regions of Brazil is already higher than the global average: in some parts of the country, average maximum temperatures have increased by up to 3°C over the last 60 years – a warming greater than the global average. Throughout the Southern Hemisphere, the greatest temperature increases are occurring in the subtropical regions of Latin America, where Brazil is located.

This rise in temperature causes more water to evaporate, making dry seasons and areas even drier, while at the same time, carrying more moisture, leading to more intense rainfall over shorter periods in humid regions and rainy seasons. The Northeast, Amazon, and Central-West regions have been experiencing more prolonged droughts, which has led to an increase in the incidence of wildfires. Meanwhile, the South and Southeast regions, particularly urban areas, have been affected by more rainfall, resulting in flooding, flash floods, and landslides. At the same time, rising sea levels and erosion are impacting around 35% of the coastline, with the most significant effects concentrated on the beaches in the North, Northeast, and Rio Grande do Sul state. The consequences include a reduction in beach width, destruction of infrastructure, and impacts on the local economy.

These are some of the findings from the latest national and international studies and reports from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) produced during the Sixth Assessment Cycle (AR6), which have been compiled in the report Climate Change in Brazil – Updated Synthesis and Perspectives for Strategic Decisions. This summary document has been prepared by the MCTI (Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation), Rede Clima, WWF-Brazil, and Instituto Alana, with the goal of providing easier access to data on the impacts of climate change in Brazil for policymakers, researchers, scientists, educators, students, and the media. The effort to consolidate this report involved collaboration between civil society, universities, and government, aiming to mobilise society on this critical issue.

The document also includes recommendations for actions needed to manage these impacts more effectively. The publication is available at this link.

Is it bad? It could get worse!

With a 2°C increase in global average temperature by 2050, around 50% of the forest cover in the Amazon could be lost due to a combination of deforestation, drier conditions, and more frequent fires. This would push the tropical rainforest to a tipping point, disrupting the entire rainfall cycle in Brazil and South America. The major rivers of the Amazon basin will experience reduced flow, leading to an expanded dry zone across the states of Amazonas, Acre, Rondônia, and Roraima, which will impact access to water, food, and electricity production. The Northeast, home to around 60 million people (according to 2010 data), could see 94% of its territory turn into desert.

The report highlights that the population affected by flash floods in Brazil will increase by between 100 and 200%. With an ageing population and an increasing trend towards urbanisation (projections suggest that the percentage of people living in cities will rise from 87% in 2020 to 92.4%), a significant proportion of these individuals will be concentrated in vulnerable settlements, unprepared for storms, heatwaves, and other extreme weather events. This will also lead to a rise in fatalities and a greater incidence of vector-borne diseases such as dengue and malaria.

Fishing stocks are estimated to decline by 77%, with a potential 30% drop in revenue (as a percentage of GDP) and a 30% to 50% reduction in fishing-related jobs by 2050.
Crop failures and challenges in the supply of food and water are also anticipated in several parts of the country, which could impact up to 21.5 million people living in large urban centres such as São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Belo Horizonte, who will be exposed to water shortages.

In this context, demand for energy is likely to increase due to the need for greater thermal comfort (such as cooling from air conditioning) and for irrigation in agricultural systems.  However, the potential damage to energy infrastructure, including wind and solar plants, will rise as a result of climate-related disasters.

What needs to be done

The report assesses that the actions taken by Brazil to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have not been sufficient to meet the actual requirements. Emissions need to stop increasing by 2025. To achieve this, comprehensive planning and the implementation of mitigation and adaptation measures at various scales will be necessary, including investing exclusively in renewable sources and improving energy production efficiency.

It will be essential to eliminate deforestation in the Amazon and other biomes, strengthen environmental enforcement, and invest in Payments for Ecosystem Services programmes  to encourage the conservation of these biomes. The adoption of sustainable agricultural practices, such as low-carbon farming, agroforestry systems, and the integration of crops, livestock, and forests, must also be scaled up to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.   It is important to highlight that, to ensure water and food security, measures such as integrated water resource management and the promotion of climate-resilient agricultural systems will need to be implemented.

Another key area is investing in low-carbon public transport, such as electric buses and trains, and promoting the use of bicycles. Public transport, in addition to being an essential service, is crucial for reducing environmental pollution, traffic-jams, and the use of fossil fuels, compared to the reliance on private motor vehicles.

To strengthen the resilience of cities, it will also be necessary to implement nature-based solutions, such as increasing green spaces, creating linear parks, and developing sustainable drainage systems. Other technological solutions, such as water-absorbing paving, and the establishment of early warning and emergency preparedness systems, will also be important. Focusing on the most vulnerable populations is key, and this should include implementing public policies that ensure access to water, sanitation, healthcare, and housing. Additionally, it will be necessary to strengthen health systems with epidemiological surveillance to monitor and prevent the emergence of diseases related to climate change, as well as to strengthen services to meet the needs of the population in this new context.

In order to achieve all of this, it is crucial that developed countries fulfil their financial commitments to support developing nations in implementing mitigation and adaptation actions, fostering international cooperation and climate financing. International cooperation is vital for the development and transfer of clean technologies, the sharing of knowledge, and the implementation of joint actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of these recommendations requires a concerted effort from governments, businesses, civil society, and individuals. Urgent and ambitious action is essential to ensure a sustainable future for Brazil and for the planet.

However, most of the available funding is directed towards mitigation strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, leaving adaptation actions on the sidelines. While mitigation is critical to addressing global warming, it is urgent to invest in adaptation—measures aimed at protecting vulnerable communities and natural systems already impacted by climate change.

Appropriate governance mechanisms, land ownership rights, and livelihoods for all those protecting biomes and forests must be guaranteed. Likewise, climate information and education about climate change must be open and accessible to everyone. Climate information services should reach small farmers, populations in remote areas, and rural communities. Additionally, professionals must be trained to work in emergency crisis conditions (epidemics, landslides, floods, heatwaves, etc.).